The first thing to look at is the Match Maker. First let's look at the distribution of numbers of tier 1s and 2s:
Quick check to see if this makes any sense and... Hmmmm. The worst tank, by a long shot, is the Med Mk. II, a tier 2! I suppose that's not unsurprising, we've previously said that British low tiers suck. The fact that the Mk. II is actually 3% worse from the Mk. I is also highly amusing. Worse, the bottom three tanks are all British.
At the other end of the spectrum, the obvious is made evident, the 'derp' T18 dominating the low tier battles, followed by the venerable Pz. II. The difference though is quite immense,
The three 'classic' Tier 1 tanks also place higher than quite a number of tier 2 tanks. The LoLTraktor once again tops the list with the T1 and MS-1 close behind, likely due to the number of experienced players running them for fun and credits. In fact, some of the T18's power may derive from similar sources, though the 75mm seems to be the main cause.
But naturally, if we can't predict much, this isn't worth much. So, of the 8453 battles, it's important to note that this model only predicts 4658 of them, just 55.1%. The null model, just guessing a Side 1 Win, can predict 51.8%. That's an improvement sure, but not much.
|At least the Trend is in the right direction
Obviously, we're showing that the choice of tank is not the biggest factor in whether a team wins. Personally, I expect we could get a lot of extra predictive power from knowing how many battles players have. It's likely that the experience of playing for a long period of time allows you to do much better against the 'noobs'. While I can't exactly vouch for a skill-based match-maker, I think that this is a perfectly good time to suggest that players with less than, say, five-hundred or a thousand battles be segregated into their own matchmaking pool for their own protection and enjoyment of the game. At least for the first couple of tiers.
For the next post I'm going to add in the low tier premiums to see if we can improve our predictive powers. Hopefully this time it won't be a week and a half between posts. After that I am going to try to tackle high tier tanks, since those are what people actually care about. By then 8.4 will likely be out and my data will be woefully out of date, so we'll go forward with obtaining more data and taking a look at how that huge 183 changed the meta game.
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